Tropical Storm JOAQUIN Advisory do, 01-10

ZCZC MIAPWSAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE JOAQUIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112015
0300 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H.

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT

CAPE RACE NFLD 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

ILE ST PIERRE  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)

BURGEO NFLD    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

PTX BASQUES    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

EDDY POINT NS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)

SYDNEY NS      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)

SABLE ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)
SABLE ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)

HALIFAX NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)

YARMOUTH NS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)
YARMOUTH NS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

MONCTON NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)

ST JOHN NB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)

EASTPORT ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)

BAR HARBOR ME  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)

AUGUSTA ME     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)

PORTLAND ME    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)

CONCORD NH     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

BOSTON MA      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)

HYANNIS MA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   5(13)
HYANNIS MA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   6(16)
NANTUCKET MA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
NANTUCKET MA   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   3(10)

HARTFORD CT    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)

MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   3(11)
MONTAUK POINT  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

NEW YORK CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)

NEWARK NJ      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   1( 7)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   X( 8)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   5( 8)   1( 9)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   5(14)   X(14)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
CAPE HATTERAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

BERMUDA        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   5(20)   X(20)
BERMUDA        50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  8  15(23)   4(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ANDROS         34 16  11(27)   3(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
ANDROS         50  1   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GREAT EXUMA    34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
GREAT EXUMA    50 53  14(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
GREAT EXUMA    64 15  13(28)   1(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)   X(29)

SAN SALVADOR   34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
SAN SALVADOR   50 67  29(96)   1(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)   X(97)
SAN SALVADOR   64 20  60(80)   2(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)

MAYAGUANA      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
MAYAGUANA      50  9   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
MAYAGUANA      64  2   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

GRAND TURK     34  5   4( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

CAMAGUEY       34  4   3( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34  7   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
FORECASTER BROWN
  

Baan v/d storm vr, 02-10

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